Mahinda Rajapakse – Where to from here? – in the Sunday Times

Sunday Times 18th November 2012  

(The above link is to the article referred to below to commemorate in another sense the 67 Birthday of President Mahinda Rajapakse.)

There is an excellent unbiased summary of the President in today’s Sunday Times, Presidency Column. It is worth a read for those who admire and also those who despise his Presidency. It is just the reason why one should be wary of its continuation. It is clear from the article, that he has gone against the grain of thinking, and has overcome all hurdles due to political mastery of his electorate.

He has gone where others have feared to tread, and in the interests of getting what he wants, is willing to compromise on principles and popularity and willing to outmaneuver the media apparatus so that he could lock in with no outward dissent.

The article singularly fails to document the excesses that have been used both to destroy anyone who is considered a threat, and the callous treatment of those he considers expendable. However it does remind people of how he uses and disposes politicians at his whim, when they are no longer needed for his long term goals.

This latter threat has stifled his ministers from expressing independence and has resulted in buffoonery at its worst in the way the governance and government is managed. Only sycophants are tolerated or at best fools, as pointed out in the article when referring to Bandula Gunewardene and SB Dissanayake. This has resulted in a third rate set of ministers who are singularly unable to improve productivity and only contribute to more waste and corruption, something Rajapakse is willing to tolerate to build a second tier of politician who will forever be indebted to him, and deliver him votes, for his good fortune in fleecing the state.

The level of economic mismanagement has not been referred to, as the article has no place in it in that aspect. The apparent success of the regime, thanks to the dividend of US$8B from our remittances, is one the President claims credit for and no one has been able to explain to the people that if not for the mismanagement of the economy by the administration this would surely have yielded far more stellar results. The squandering of this dividend, along with the casting away of the peace dividend, is what history will eventually remember him for once the value of winning the internal war with the LTTE is forgotten in the mists of time.  

In short only simple minded folk with no values, morality, principles and patriotism, never mind even the need for a show of democracy or governance will endorse his continuation. Until that moral degradation can be overcome, by education and values, we are left to ponder on what might have been!!

Elders perceptions of Development are from their perceived prejudices

I was having a discussion the other day with an 85yr old. His perception was that things are good. Shops are full of stuff, the country is full of cars, Roads and highways are being built, and the outward signs of prosperity are for all to see.

Therefore, JR’s Executive Presidency, and the even more power taken into the Center by the current President are good for this country. Namely that democracy does not work in Sri Lanka and only dictatorship works. How he can say this was beyond my comprehension.

He is someone who has spent many years travelling overseas and is fully aware of the outside world and progress. He has lived through the miserable years of Mrs Bs government of 1970 to 1977, when there was a flight of people emigrating, that imprisoned people who sent 5pounds sterling abroad!! So for him this regime that has so called provided all these as well as a huge increase in the value of a property he bought in the 1960’s is the answer!!

Does he realize that all this is just part of normal development of an economy, especially one where during Mrs Bs tenure needed an exit permit to go overseas? Where now 2million people remit around US$8Billion to themselves, friends and family back home!! It is this incredible free money that has brought this economy to this level of development, despite the corruption, despite all the anti investment and growth policies of this government. Just imagine where we would be if we had a proper functioning democracy, where a particular cult or family personality is not fostered above all else, and to the detriment of society.

To give any of this benefit to this Government is plain wrong and at best paying lip service to an administration, that has yet to solve ONE white van abduction, has nothing to say about 100,000 disappearances, and where the loved ones are still searching for answers. Is this the country he feels is better than an alternative? Does one journalist dare say anything in printed paper against this government? How many journalists have been abducted and have not been seen or been killed? Can you honestly say that justice is meted out fairly? How would you feel if one of the disappeared was one of your own? Will you ignore it as just an accident and he deserved it!!

I can understand this sentiment coming from a simpleton with no education that just believes what he sees, without knowing where the costs and benefits come from. When we have such educated and eminent people making such comments, and one does not attribute it to senility, then I wonder if their lives have been in a cave of ignorance, where there is no humanity, except for enriching themselves.

Obama’s visits to Cambodia and Myanmar – Why not Sri Lanka?

The question above is an interesting Foreign Policy poser for Sri Lankan students of International Affairs. Obama is going to Cambodia to attend an Asean Leaders Summit, but is nevertheless the First by a sitting US President to that Country. Its been a while since Cambodia opened up, and is now firmly within the US grip with much US investment, and a wholesale scramble of rich Cambodians wishing to educate their children in the US to come and run businesses and government!

It is barely 2011 when Myanmar opened up to the world, but since the Pro Democracy leader’s visit in September to Washington, Obama graces with a visit to a once Pariah state, where the Pariah is still in power!! A record 22 months since the country opened up. In this same record speed the US investments are flying in and even the Sri Lankan Motor Traders, sickened by the flip flops of an unpredictable and schizophrenic Sri Lankan Government, are scrambling for a piece of the action, by re-exporting the cars they cannot sell in Sri Lanka to Myanmar!! Who would have thought a few years ago that the US would make such an about turn in such a short time?

It is a lesson to SL. Much of the foreign investment designated for Sri Lanka is now gladly going to Myanmar. Their gain is our loss, a direct trade off. I would recommend a student from the External Affairs Ministry go to Myanmar and see what it is we have missed by a Government taking the wrong turns. SL government has in fact cheated their own people by this action, and the results can be seen clearly. The two faced jingoistic politicians may say good riddance, but they would greatly have preferred the US investment to fill their greedy bellies but for the anti Western rhetoric, for local consumption.

The relaxing of rules, the encouragement of investment, the enterprise of a still not corrupt population, not asking for huge bribes are all part of this formula that benefits both the people of Myanmar and the people of the Investing Country. It is a sad reflection of what we in Sri Lanka have missed, what we have deliberately set aside for personal political fame at home consigning our population to a state of siege of the devaluation of law and order, and the morality of example of leaders that affect the actions of the general public into a stealing, lazy amoral life.

Why unless their honorable intentions are questionable, would a country after a debilitating war sacrifice the peace dividend? Why is it that the people of Sri Lanka are so oblivious to have foregone the benefits, to a daylight robbery by a few of the immense potential of this country? I can just but wonder in words!!!

The escalating crisis within Palestine – the possibility of an imminent Israeli invasion of Gaza

Israel who has the largest Army in the world as a percentage of its population, when one includes the Reservists, has now called up everyone to be mobilized. The thinking is that it is for a short sharp invasion of the Gaza strip, to rid the Gaza of all the troublesome elements. After all, Israeli intelligence, that is not second to any with at least 10,000 Israeli spies, that are of Palestinian Arab decent within Gaza, have supplied all the data on who and who is not, so that all those Hamas who are tasked with sending rockets to Israel are targeted for assassination.

Those tasked with sending rockets includes the baker who supplies bread to the people who build the rocket and even the little child who goes to the store to get a packet of fags for another who is involved in the plan! The Israelis show NO mercy to those they perceive are a threat to their security, and will always target them no matter what. Sadly there is one “SERIOUS MISCALCULATION IN ISRAELI POLICY” some say it is deliberate though!

What is that? It is simply that this method of Israeli retaliation will stop or prevent further excesses by Palestinian Arabs against the Israeli State. This miscalculation is at the heart of the present problem in the Middle East. While Israel maintains it values an Israeli life for at least 100 Palestinian, in their retaliation stakes, it simply works against the Israeli dictum as the Palestinians have the numbers and multiply even at a faster rate than Jews to negate any numerical annihilation they attempt.

After all the Gaza, if anyone who has been there will vouch is a tiny sliver of land that is one of the most overpopulated places on earth. Losing a few thousand to Israeli massacres is part of their formula. Hamas will actually look forward to an invasion, as they have already amassed their propaganda stories to capitalize on this affront to international law. The Israelis will invade they will kill as many militants as they have been informed of by the informants in Gaza, the world will condemn the action, the UN will have a resolution, the US will veto it, the Arab world will do NOTHING in the end to help these Palestinians, and within 6 months the furor will die down and it will back to business.

The Israelis believe killing 10,000 Gazans will reduce the population boom for a few days, the Gazans will be relieved they were able to also reduce the population pressure and at the same time get public opinion yet again against Israel, and they will be able to get more aid to rebuild and keep their unemployed people (50%) at work in rebuilding the bombed out buildings with UN aid.

It is a game that goes round and round in circles. This focuses the world attention on the Palestinian issue, with empty gestures by world leaders, who need some international conflagration to keep the people’s minds occupied, lest the more urgent domestic tasks at hand get a hearing and their popularity dips!

The cynical world leaders love to get on the bully pulpit and castigate Israel for their action, so they are seen as doing something about it, while in reality, innocent long suffering Gazans have NO relief from the daily grind and suffering living in an oppressive strip of land not too different to the strip that the Tamils emerged out of following the Nandikadal Lagoon crossing from Mullaitivu, at the end of the LTTE conflict. The Gazans have had to endure 70 years there not a few months, of which population, 99% were born into this slum, and know nothing, but that their country has been stolen from them by settlers from other lands.

When will this conflict end? It will only end when the Palestinians can improve their quality of life from that of being mere beggars of UN assistance to that similar to the Israelis. It is the duty of the world (UN and USA) to intervene to force Israel to return to their 1967 borders and then guarantee security to the remaining Israeli state. Until that happens we are merely dreaming of peace. We must face facts that it is only the US that can impose this settlement, and further it is only Obama who can and now has the opportunity to force it.

He may risk being assassinated by the Israelis for it, but it is worth a risk to ensure that the most troubling world issue that impinges on the security of the world is solved. Surely if one can achieve that, it is even worth being assassinated for, as it will reinforce that Israel can never force a dogma that only about 4 million people believe in, hold the world of 7Billion people to ransom.

Any God that one believes in will reward this enforced peace, as the only possible solution to a problem that will not go away, and does not seem that anyone really wants it to go away, as so many people benefit from this. It is only a sitting US President, in his second term who can force a settlement upon a reluctant Israeli Government and people, with a compliant Jewish Lobby who is given an ultimatum that there is no other choice. The impending Iranian Invasion if it takes place will be further grounds to force the acquiescence of the Jewish Lobby.

There are too many threats to world peace and security and the economic prosperity of newly emerging nations, that this cancer of the Palestinian conflict must be once and for all solved. Neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians want a solution. So it is up to only the United States so to do by sheer force. 

The scorn with which International Pressure is dealt with – UPR review

In  Globalized world of seamless borders we continue to believe that an isolationist and jingoistic approach will suit our situation best. Whilst the Govt. of Sri Lanka may think so, it is up to the people of Sri Lanka to wake up to reality and know that the US$7B that is remitted from other countries is due to Globalization and the export of human resources. That in turn has enabled the Govt. to shun globalization at their peril.

If not for the million and a half and counting disenfranchised citizens who prop up this administration with their earnings and its waste by the state, there would be no room for this  pigheadedness. 

The absolute scorn and derision that the Universal Periodic Review process of the UNHRC in Geneva is dealt with by an increasingly cocky Sri Lankan Government puts enormous pressure on the UN system and its credibility.

For the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) to reject outright, 100 of 210 motions is unprecedented in the annals of UN history. The second worst being Myanmar a few years ago, which rejected 95. Rejection per se is not an issue, if the GOSL genuinely believes they are unreasonable. So in the past the action taken on those accepted if they are an indication is nevertheless appalling. Out of the 71 pledges they accepted last time, they have not done anything on 52 of them. So what good is the pledge? Any guess as to how many of the 110 they accepted, would be acted on? Perhaps 5 if we are lucky.

This process therefore is a waste of time, and a waste of resources sending our people to Geneva to make a fool of themselves, and in turn the Country. It is better not to go at all and end this charade. The GOSL is comfortable in their skin to act in this way, knowing nothing will come to harm them, with an international community hidebound by bureaucracy and processes that prevent effective policing of wrongdoing and wrongdoers.

There is a lot of talk about external interference in our internal affairs, but the reality is that it amounts to a hill of beans. There is NO substance in the threats and we know it. We can therefore act with impunity, holding international law to a worthless piece of paper, though we are signatories to many of the laws and conventions. This threat is for political reasons to keep the electorate engaged.

It is time for those who care about Sri Lanka, not just what others think of it, but of what is happening within its shores to act independently against this onslaught and take a stand. We may not get any support from outside, in fact when action is taken we must assume that there will be NO support from outside, as anyone wishing to support us will do so for their self interest over ours, and that is the same for China who if they have pledged to prop up the regime, will do so if they have been given sufficient assurances of what they will get out of this friendship.

We the people must therefore put the Country first, explain to our fellow citizens that the GOSL is putting personal interests before the Country’s and singlemindedly go ahead with a plan of action that will get the traction it needs for public acceptance on who really is capable of and able to defend the Country.

20 out of a 100 Senators in the US are women. None of them film or TV stars!

It is important that we keep in perspective our rabid anti US rhetoric. We must be able to justify our stance lest we be fooled into a false sense of logic. I recommend we start by analyzing in depth how the US electorate voted? Women in the US Senate

It is important for good governance and a mature democracy to have a higher representation of women in all areas of elected office. Sri Lanka MUST make a conscious effort to increase women’s representation in politics. Women do not get into this game as it is seen as dirty and seedy, and only good for low life thugs.

We must change that attitude, and the easiest way to do so is by training and empowering women to go into politics. They are the future of Sri Lanka’s clean politics as it is difficult to see how we can make a sea change in a short time from the current constituents of elected officers, other than by a much greater representation by women.

I sincerely believe it is the responsibility of the two main political parties to make a pledge that they will make plans to select at least 25% women to contest the wards in the local government elections, and in order to do so must now (4 years before the next elections) identify the leaders, and train them in the art of winning the trust of the voters in their areas. Thankfully the new voting system, allows people with less money to contest as they only have to be popular in their local area of say 750 homes, and starting now the identified women can go into each of the 750 homes once every 6 months to build the trust and if she competes against a man can guarantee to win next time. What a contest!

The new ward system attempts to breakdown each area into about 3000 voters or about 750 homes in 3 Grama Niladari divisions. They will then have one elected representative in the local council or Pradeshiya Sabha. In this way we will revert to having one elected person who really represents our area, and who ALL no matter what party affiliation can go to for their immediate needs. Today we do not know who to go to, as there is no direct representative who will take responsibility to look into the particular problem of our local area if we need assistance of an elected official to solve a basic problem.

I hope the political parties see this with a clear future vision as the key to winning the next local government elections. This strategy is the way to go. The party that is first out of the gates will have a head start and it is a strategically shrewd move to gain power, never mind the obvious benefits attached to it. 

There is another interesting statistic of the breakdown of the voters into different categories and that is worth a visit.

Breakdown of voters in the 2012 Presidential Elections

An expert in Human Rights and Foreign Policy in the US – Samantha Power will call the shots – Sri Lanka, You ain’t seen nothing yet!!

OBAMA WINS AND SO THIS WAS HIS LAST ELECTION 

His Administration is determined to stamp its mark on history and he does not have to pander to anyone anymore, not even special interests. Israel is probably in his sights and Netanyahu will just have to watch it. 

As it relates to Sri Lanka, the President’s special assistant, and senior director for multilateral affairs and human rights at the National Security Council, Ms Samantha Power, a Harvard Law School Graduate, just like Obama, will determine the fate of Sri Lanka. 

Samantha Power

She is Obama’s point man on HR, and Sri Lanka is in her sights, as they act like a thorn in the backside of the US, being cocky, something the US does not like countries to be! After all on the UPR day in Geneva, the Impeachment motion on trumped up charges, against the CJ were handed to the Speaker. How cocky can you get, and showing the two fingers up at all those who wanted some restitution?

We in Sri Lanka spend our time, more like waste our time telling the US to mind their own business, as they have no right to tell us what to do, when their abuses are ongoing and continuous and Sri Lanka’s alleged violations pale in comparison. We just don’t appear to understand Global geopolitics. If we are not dependent on the West for exports, IMF bailouts and continuous aid, then I will say, we are within our rights, when we take from one hand and then try to cut the other hand at the same time. Who would want to extend the hand, they will surely want to annihilate the aggressor especially if it is fly? just “SWAT” it! Sri Lanka is of strategic benefit due to its location and the increasing importance of South Asia.

So we will watch and see how the US administration handles this irritant called the Government of Sri Lanka. Of course the Rajapakses are afraid of “Regime Change”. We only have an army to defend us against our own people, in short attack our citizens who misbehave, because we have PATENTLY failed to non-violently deal with minor issues, before letting them get out of hand. Other people have armies to go attack other countries using boats, planes and ICBMs. (India too)

In other countries they call it The National Guard. I remember working on the espionage and communication system of the Saudi Arabian National Guard.(SANG) They keep track of the Saudis, so that SANG has a tight control over the people, preventing their independent thinking and taking a stance against the despotic rule there. The US administration, CIA is in cahoots with them, as they make a lot of money, (read enlightened US self interest there) and human rights violations on a daily basis will not raise the ire of Samantha Power.

In Sri Lanka it is a different case. Powerful countries have their own self interest to protect and spread throughout the world so that they can gain access to the raw materials at cheap prices to ensure their citizens can have a higher quality of life.

We in Sri Lanka must learn the ropes, and the art of diplomacy to gain the best for our people, by making friends with the right people, and capitalize on our location.

It is no secret that the US is a pariah of SL and China is a darling. If we stop for a moment to understand why, we will realize that the Chinese administration is giving what Sri Lanka wants, plenty of money at very high interest rates. We will be in debt to them forever and may have to give them back what they have built, as we are unable to pay the loans! IS that what we are so jingoistic about?

Sri Lankans, we must first protect ourselves from the threats inside and outside. We have done a very bad job of it and continue to do a bad job. We do not understand quiet diplomacy and neither do we know how to manage the Country’s finances carefully, not getting into usurious debt, wasting much of the borrowing on corruption and keeping the nation happy by spreading jingoistic propaganda.

It is easy, just like in Venezuela’s case to gain popularity by finding a common enemy such as the US, it allows the leaders to blame the country’s travails and poor management of fiscal, foreign, and domestic policy on the US!! This is a farcical stance, but easily propagated even amongst the educated, as US atrocities are not hidden, including the mass killings of US drones. However if we use the same arrow at the US we must use it against China too as they are no darlings.  The regime is reputed to receive commissions in excess of US$1B in kickbacks or commissions from Chinese contracts, so they have NO intention of so doing.

We are therefore at the mercy of how Samantha Power feels, and if she wakes up one morning and decides it is Mahinda Rajapakse who needs a little bit of TLC of US style, she has the power, (no pun intended) and authority from the President to do so. Let us see. As someone who believes in this Country, and its future to see this country being divided to create a ruling class, only bent on personal aggrandizement and using the US as a jonah to fool the masses, will soon see its comeuppance. As the phrase “you ain’t seen nothing yet” implies, the future is where the good overcome evil, and the evil will be burnt at the stake, figuratively speaking, and we can eventually achieve the prosperity we deserve and has been long denied. I am sorry that the route has to be this, but it is inevitable. When power becomes so corrupt there are no second chances. 

The margin of total popular votes obtained by the winner and loser in the US election is only 1Million votes out of 110M votes cast, but it is interesting..........

Barak Obama won a second term, after enduring opinion polls on the last two days predicting a neck and neck race. It goes to show that in the end the voter is split down the middle, with expectations to match. The enormous cost of the election means that the loser will have placed a massive gamble and lost. The donors gave only a portion of their wealth and therefore are generally not the most to disgruntled by backing the loser. It is the party workers on the losing side who will be feeling it the most, not the fundraisers who I bet also helped the winning side, but who are unwilling to admit publicly.

Here are some preliminary findings:

1                   Obama wins with 55% of the women’s vote to 45% of the men's!

2                 60% of the 18-29 yr olds who account for 19% of those who voted and only 44% of 65 yr and older who account for 16% of those who voted.

3                 Obama whilst receiving 62% of the Urban, only got only 39% of the rural vote.

These three facts in on itself does not create a picture, but it is worthy to ponder on what type of person was attracted to each candidate, and which perhaps also says something about the split between likely Republican and Democratic voters. I did not see any breakdown between religious groupings except to say that 80% of all Americans profess some kind of Christian ethic.

Obama-care the health care system was the main item that Obama will be remembered for in his first administration if one discounts the appalling state of the economy he inherited, and which he has still not totally managed to solve.

Older people who are beneficiaries of Medicare, the state subsidized health care system, obviously are not the most enthusiastic about ensuring health coverage for all despite they benefiting anyway due to their age. That is a selfish attitude that concerns all Americans, who are in fear of getting ill, as they are worried that they could lose all their wealth if sickness/illness strikes.

It is therefore left for us to ponder and wonder how the next four years of the Obama administration will differ from the first, as he can now be bold, not needing to be popular and instead act directly in the interests of the Nation, altruistically.

The boy is in school. His first day in classes was November 5th – a postscript

A few days earlier I blogged about getting a kid into school and went through some of the steps I had as an experience to take get him in. Subsequent to that day, his mother took him to school on Friday as the Principal had requested and was told to begin classes on the following Monday, that was yesterday.

Link to original entry

As a parental contribution, she was asked to donate 6 bags of cement for an ongoing school project, I am not sure if it is a new classroom or what but a donation in kind such as this appears to be in the overall interest of the school, which gets precious little in the way of funds for building, repairs, maintenance and upkeep, leaving it to the parents to contribute in whatever means possible on behalf of their prized offspring.

Me not having kids was astounded as to how expensive the shorts, shirt and shoes is to send a child to school, and the mother has to get another pair of shorts tailored from the State provided cloth that she had with her.

The mother herself only has one sari to call her own, which she wore on all three occasions she went to the school in the past week, and so I gave her a sari and told her to have a sari blouse tailored.

This will be an experience in knowing the how the school system works, what kids have to do and what is expected of parents. Also the gossip, back biting and competitive pressure on parents and kids will be a source for my blog in future months, when I have a story that needs to be told.

The mother has to take the kid to school, walking the approx 1KM and then picking him up at 12noon as First and Second grade classes finish at that time. She has added work to wake up early, prepare his breakfast and get him ready for school.

I was told his first day was good and the boy enjoys his new school. Let us fervently hope it stays that way. He was given a list of things to get, books for class but that was all.

Considering the hyper active nature of the kid when he came three months ago, I am glad to report that the stay here, has calmed him down, and hope his mother who earlier could not control him, will now be able to instill some discipline as regards his waking, studying and sleeping times.

Youth and Female representation in local politics – a crying need in Sri Lanka

In the previous blog entry, I commented on Sajith Premadasa’s comments extensively carried out in yesterday’s papers, that the newly passed Local Government Elections Amendment Act has reduced representation of women and youth, that had been set up in the past. I also elaborated that the MP’s statement was clearly misleading, as Sri Lanka has one of the lowest representation rates of both these categories in local government anywhere in the world, except for some Muslim countries. The new Act has not mandated any figure, with just a recommendation of 25%, and further Sajith said he had asked for 25% youth and 25% female, which had been rejected. The constant criticism is that youth and women have no clue in politics, but that is a gross generalization. Only those who are capable can be selected, as they are more able than some of the long serving male politicians, and can increase the representation we are crying out for.

Mandating creates unqualified candidates, as was proved. Often, women were just accosted on the street, asked to give their ID information and then included in the candidate list so that the minimum could be met, hardly befitting a PR system!

There is a usual fear amongst politicians that young people will be able to take votes from their traditional voter base, as they are able to go house to house and be seen to be active, whilst the older pol is ensconced in an office doing his work, with less time on his hands to go house to house. This has meant that there is an effort by the older pols, to prevent active, and capable young people from rising.

It is important therefore that the Party makes a concerted effort in publicizing the party policy on youth, and how it intends to increase the participation of youth, women and minorities through their party, primarily by giving capable people the nomination as a first step.

Actually, a more important step is required first, namely of identifying future leaders in this sector and giving them the necessary training to plan a campaign for the next election. Within the organizational structure of the UNP it then falls to the Lak Vanitha Peramuna to identify local women and empower them and train them for future office, and in a similar vein, the Jathika Yovun Peramuna to do the same for youth. Through this training certain commitments can be given, if a criteria test can be cleared, so there is no ambiguity amongst them on what it is that is required, prior to them getting nomination to a local ward to contest on the party’s behalf. It is therefore the responsibility of the political party to take steps to increase representation rather than refer to the Act to criticize the lack of such!!