Monday, May 14, 2018

Have you faced rolling power cuts? Coal / LNG/ Short Term Energy Shortfall - What Next?


As usual no one is thinking rationally, they are all backing their corner ignoring the reality, looming energy shortfall – Coal / Power Requirements

Let me begin by saying I am against Coal in principle, knowing what we do now about the harmful effects on the environment not just for us in Sri Lanka, but also to those who have to deal with the sediment/dust and pollution resulting from it and it could be India and South East Asia that suffer, for that matter.

Similarly we do know the harm caused to Sri Lanka from Coal Fired Plants in India, but as we don’t have resources allocated to study this fact, we are unable to explain to our citizens the human and environmental toll to Sri Lanka resulting from Coal Fired Plants in India.

So all we have are anecdotal evidence of the harm that Norochchalai has done to the people who live around the area, when strict safety and pollution standards are not adhered to. See link below;


Then look at the contribution to our Grid from Coal yesterday, 13th May 2018 - 54.56% http://www.ceb.lk/yesterday-electricity/ If you click on the link, you will only get the percentage of the previous day, and so it will not be the same as yesterday!

Now if we did not have Lakvijaya, where would be? I know the anti-coal lobby will say, we would have already gone into alternative and renewable sources. I say BULL SHIT, it was not on the cards at that time. I however say that had it been done long before it finally came on stream, using the original Japanese Technology, the pollution would have been less, and we would have had it in operation 10 years ahead, and the cost to the people would have been less. We know the huge commissions and corruption that has taken place in getting a second rate Chinese product instead! To say nothing of the breakdowns.

Then came the argument about the need for a second Coal Plant in Sampur and there was a huge hue and cry against it, and it was dumped in favor of a LNG, less polluting non – renewable energy plant in Sampur instead, which has still got to get off the ground, due to other intervening implementation delays.

I am a friend of the environmentalist Ranil Senanayake and at that time he told me about the possible damage to Sri Maha Bodhi from the Sampur Project, knowing the way the wind blows, this was many years back. Now with the same issue at Norochcholai he has conveniently done the same with this pollution, see below. Why?


Only because our people don’t take any notice when there is a problem, until their limited focus, gets rattled by some threat to their belief system, hard wired into their heads, with no other real understanding of what it means. So for Buddhists, any threat to the Sri Maha Bodhi is like a personal attack on them. Ranil was smart enough to use that which attracts publicity in this desperate race for people’s and law makers’ attention. Frankly I am surprised he did not use this before, but yesterday, it attracted interest and gained traction, tripping up the Coal Lobby in their quest for another plant before it is too late.

Interestingly, the President, due to advice from his traitors around him, likely with a personal interest, has reopened the Coal debate, when people thought it had been firmly shut, by NOT excluding Coal from his instructions to the PUC in looking into new power plants.


I believe Ranil Senanayake snookered that interest with this proclamation, as he definitely has no ulterior motive, other than the need to return Sri Lanka into a place where we can live, without fear that we are being poisoned, by water, food or air we breathe, as simple as that. Currently of course are heading for disaster.

The following is a link to a very comprehensive article on the matter, and is worth reading if you are interested in being abreast of the energy debate.


However, today’s FT has another news item that the Ministry of Power is in negotiation to build THREE LNG plants from different countries.


Whatever the pros and cons, we have to have an inter related plan that urgently addresses HOW TO PRACTICALLY MEET THE POWER DEMAND OF THE NEXT 10 YEARS, as there is no clear plan, due to delayed decision making, and have a long term view that ONLY renewable energy is the way forward, and the technology is being used in other countries, so we merely need to engage and set up, perhaps in the ocean outside our waters if it is feasible. IN the short term my dear readers, WE HAVE A PROBLEM in meeting the demand, and to that extent we must encourage as many households by giving free solar panels to reduce pressure on the grid by being energy independent.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

CEB Engineers are the problem. They think they are wizards, when in fact they are fossils. New technology has overtaken them and they don't even realize it. They use their muscle to instill fear, because those who oversea them are illiterate and can be hoodwinked. We need a culture, in Sri Lanka where leaders are more knowledgeable than their serfs, not the other way round as in Sri Lanka. That is the problem here.

There are new techniques in low cost transmission lines, village clusters managing energy using AI to balance peaks troughs and demand variations, which is the reason they always say we must go for big power plants, that they can control. It is impossible to control home usage and production into the grid, or so they think. If there is a critical mass, this too can be done and managed.

Force all new constructions, over a certain value to be energy self sufficient for starters.

Large off shore wind turbines can even out some of the demand supply mismatches.

Anonymous said...

Look

We are now paying third party suppliers a fortune to provide the grid with electricity. Due to the shortfall,the Government is forced to come to power purchase agreements at ridiculous prices from these owners of private power plants that can turn on and off at their whim to supply shortfall. They are of course powered for the most part by furnace oil that is also rising in price along with the increase in crude oil prices.

The media is not mentioning the indecent amount of money that is made by these suppliers, because it will cause a riot and the SAITM demonstrations will look like a walk in the park in comparison.

WHY? Because of poor planning, implementation of long term supply needs. They are still faffing about this urgent tender in Kerawalpitiya for a LNG plant and the costs are rising daily with the fall the in the rupee.

This decision should have been made 3 years ago, by which time they could have supplied the shortfall at lower prices than what the CEB is paying today. Why was it delayed? It was purposely delayed because there is a lot of money to be made by officials in the CEB and other places by the private suppliers who are profiting immensely due to it.

COMMON SENSE - It is not in the interest of me who owns a 100MW plant that the CEB finds large scale energy cheaper elsewhere. So I bribe the CEB engineers to put a bucket in the proceedings and purposely delay decision making. Their bosses, the ministers are morons anyway who don't understand the nuances OR they too are paid off, I don't know.

Bottom line - the people of Sri Lanka have to pay the price for these traitors actions. In other countries face the firing squad. It is time to institute the firing squad here too, so the people don't get fleeced by Public Serivants and Quasi Public Servants who the CEB are.

There will be a riot if all the CEB payroll is published in the newspapers, So why are they taking bribes like this? Greed I suppose.

Anonymous said...

The CEB engineers and staff are on strike or some kind of work to rule, so they have not updated the website since May 7th so the figure of 54% is from then.

Another hit against the public by these self serving rogues

Anonymous said...

There is a simple answer

We need a projection for power needs of the National Grid by year. We need capacity today and in the future, depending on what is expected to come on stream, and then we know what the shortfall is

We can then focus on the shortfall and have a public debate on all alternatives, and choose the most suitable for Sri Lanka. A mix is recommended and in future power sharing with India should be on the cards, where they buy from us and we buy from them, and even out of mutual supply and demands.

This shortfall, lead times and renewable energy mixes, so that incentives if they are needed for households, energy saving techniques, Musk's Wall energy storage device can all be incorporated to have a national energy policy, which in 30 years may result in half the vehicles now on the road, requiring fossil fuels.

Electric car recharging stations and driverless cars may become the norm in future, and all buses will be run on electricity to minimize air pollution.

No plan means we cannot even have a sensible debate on the topic. If there is a plan, then lets see it. Time they shared, or bared their nakedness - CEB

Anonymous said...

Power Crisis likely due to CEB Engineers Work to rule - we have heard this type already

May 14th Ceylon Today - link below

http://www.ceylontoday.lk/print-edition/2/print-more/4557

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