Lets leave the Fog of War behind and go to the Clarity of Peace

The Civil war draws to a close, the President will hold the 61st Anniversary of Independence from Britain on 4th February in Kilinochchi, the self styled temporary capital of the vanquished Tamil Tiger Terrorist separatists.

He is entitled to glory in victory as he made this his initial goal. The forces also are entitled to theirs with a possible announcement of the taking of Mullaitivu and the cessation of hostilities aimed for that date too.

I know my local boys in the village, who returned from the front, some in coffins, others minus limbs, others wounded and sufficiently recovered to return for the final battle and still others who come on their leave from the front. They are all privates with limited education and not senior officers. They have been the frontline foot soldiers, who have seen battle at first hand and hats off to them for having braved harsh conditions to achieve their objectives. Some of the truths however coming out of this which will come to light in time to come, when the final analysis is made, are as follows:

The enemy was far fewer in number than earlier estimated. Much of the claimed retaking of Pooneryn and Kilinochchi and Elephant Pass were not as a result of heavy battles, but skirmishes where the enemy retreated and the ground claimed. The total Tiger terrorist death count is in the few hundreds, and the civilians under Tiger control less than a tenth of that estimated. The armaments that remained for the Tigers to fight are few and they are quickly running out of ammunition, and hence they chose to retreat when low on magazines rather than obviously perish in a hail of bullets. It is therefore just a matter of time before the rest are mopped up, and the stragglers who disappear into the forests sans their arms are caught. They are not preparing for the fight of their lives saving the best for last as they have little left.

I assume that Prabarkaran the leader would have left the scene by aircraft, as we despite finding 7 airstrips have yet to find an aircraft. This in no way belittles the success of the forces, but just brings into perspective the reality. It is therefore worth remembering that more young Sinhala boys were killed by the forces in JVP uprisings than Tamil Tigers in the whole war, so that we can take the race card out of this equation once and for all. It is therefore worth remembering that once more they are citizens of this country who have been led astray that have been killed and we must also feel a lot of sympathy for their families, the Tamils who have lost kith and kin.
I pray we don’t have a long drawn out guerilla campaign that keeps the security forces busy all around the country to delay the final return to normalcy. In order to achieve a lasting degree of peace we must be magnanimous in victory and immediately give the Tamils all around the country some sign of comfort of being equal citizens in this country, something that has been lacking due to the distrust created by war and race.

It is the President’s to win or lose, as this is trickier than winning the war. Once all the resources to win were given to the forces as a matter of priority to win the war at all costs, including the suppression of Human Rights, it was a matter of time. We must now educate our citizens that with citizenship comes rights as well as responsibilities, but the rights must include freedom to live travel and communicate any way they want without hindrance or fear.

The Executive President has the power to ensure that all this can be won, and just a phrase or two in public in the Tamil language does not ensure a lasting peace. Once the confidence of all the Tamil people is gained by action and not words we can grow this country into a truly multicultural society it has always been and should continue to be.

As a matter of priority the soldiers could be used to immediately open up and rebuild the A9 highway to Jaffna as a dual carriageway from Vavuniya onwards as there are no impediments like land to be purchased. It is easier to do this in flat land with a limited number of bridges and culverts to restore. That will instill confidence, that the best road in the land is now in the North and even though such a road is really not necessary due to the limited traffic, it will be a big morale booster that the Government means business. It will also automatically draw thousands of people from the South to visit the North and thereby immediately give a boost to the battered economy of the North. I would be the first to travel North on a new road to engage my fellow countrymen in Jaffna to show our sincerity to live in peace and harmony and put the war and all its distrust and bad history behind us.

I look forward to an optimistic future, the impediment being the mindset of some in Government who have been unable to shed the shackles of racism. I believe the UNP has much less of this and will be more capable of gaining the confidence of the whole nation as a more inclusive party though its leadership has temporarily been unable to take up the mantle of the high moral ground due to poor communication of its message to the masses. We can now shed the bloody past and look forward to a different future of peace.

Funeral and Burial rituals will need to change shortly

This week when in Godagama where I currently live there were three funeral houses, and when I came to my agricultural land in Raja Ela, Hingurakgoda there were two and yesterday when I went to Ratmale where I am building my home, there was a further one in the adjoining village of Rotewewa.

All these have a few things in common, The local village funeral committee ‘marandara samithiya’ takes charge of the arrangements providing the temporary shed to house the attendees, arranges for refreshments, puts up the signs and notices in appropriate locations to guide those coming to pay their respects to the deceased and of putting up a row of flags from the funeral house to the village cemetery for burial. It is burial, which is still common in the villages as they do not directly have access to crematoriums and funeral pyres are an expensive option only for the relatively wealthy. The state is in the process of building crematoriums in places where they see an acute need for them as burial space is becoming limited and in future will be the commonest form of disposing of the remains.

It is almost universal to have an almsgiving on the 7th day and another on the 3rd month of remembrance with a Buddhist priest coming to perform certain rights as well as give a sermon on behalf of the deceased. This is usually followed by refreshments or a meal, which is common in most places. A collective effort at food preparation is made with quite a spread of food, and I don’t hesitate to note that the specially prepared meal is a draw to attract most people from the neighborhood. I have been to many and a fairly expensive spread is prepared as compared with the fairly standard ‘mala bath’ which is given after the burial to those who come to the house.

The point I am trying to make is, in future there will be funerals on a regular basis, which will make attendance a big problem for people and not practical. So some of these traditions will have to change just as they have changed to the current system from historical traditions, some of which were more elaborate and some less depending on the circumstances peculiar to the area, people’s economic situations, and such like. We must remember that traditions also change and are not fixed in stone. We must be open to change that makes these rituals practical and on a point where it is considered expected for local and sometimes national politicians to attend, a serious change of attitude is required if we are to expect more productivity from our elected officials to perform rather than spend time and expense at funerals.

Alcoholism a daily curse of Sri Lanka

Is it just me, my neighborhood or my luck that I am stuck facing alcoholics all around me who are or seem to be always permanently inebriated. Most of the males in my workforce in Godagama are blind drunk after work and when they keep begging for money to keep food on the table, I wonder how in all good conscience I can feel sorry for them. No doubt all my exhortations come to naught and my frustration level knows no bounds.I know that the output and efficiency of the workforce is compromised due to this disability if I can call it that, I am at my wits end to find a solution.

Today, I had to tell a neighboring alcoholic, whose wife works in the Middle East and sends money home, to make sure his 7year old son goes to school. This neighbor is illiterate and so I had to nicely talk to him about the importance of a basic education for his son who rarely goes to school and failed the entrance to the next class and who will now have to repeat the previous year. I think my request was not heard or will not be acted upon and he has no one to persuade him to do the right thing. It is not a question of money, as they seem to waste the money the wife sends on the unnecessary things.

I then had to confront a man who was also totally under the influence to ask him to come and pluck some coconuts and still another punch-drunk neighbor to come and husk my coconuts in the morning. All these individuals merely drink with the money earned from these activities, and I don’t need to repeat myself here to state that a man who can climb coconut trees can potentially earn more than a physician in Sri Lanka, such is the demand for his services. I know I desperately require their services.

I know that my road is full of alcoholics. A moonshine seller inhabits my neighborhood, but does not appear to be that well off despite his trade. He is constantly nabbed by the police but is able to bribe or pay a fine that is imposed on him by a magistrate and continue his trade. Even I have problems where I have told him that my property is not to be used for any part of his activities especially as I control two properties by the river, which would be very handy to him to hide the brewing barrels under the water.

I am sure the problem I face is prevalent throughout the island, but the sad fact is that in a male dominated society where only the women appear to work no one appears to take any action and politicians don’t dare.

Today, Saturday the 10th of January is a Full Moon Poya Day

In Sri Lanka, all full moon days are Poya holidays. While not being a Buddhist country it is still inhabited by a majority who claim Buddhism as their religion, though technically Buddhism is not a religion, but a way of life following the teachings of the Lord Buddha.

Needless to say if one were to argue the point in fact, there are possibly many in the world who more closely practice the teachings of the Lord Buddha who do not claim to be Buddhists than those who claim to be Buddhist. When I write on religion I am bound to offend a lot of people, but I wish nevertheless to express my opinion.

We in all religions and I include Buddhism in this context, know that the basic philosophy is to live wholesomely in unison with the environment, while obeying basic morals and attempting to be “good”. The word good is interpreted in different ways. This is not necessarily by those whose names we bestow to the religion, but by the practitioners who interpret this good and tell people how to be good and what happens if you are bad.

It is an incontrovertible fact, that few if any actually follow all the tenets of their religions, but many attempt in various forms to try, and some fail, and others do a little and hope it will be enough etc. Still others shame their religion by being very bad examples, which people of other religions use to shame the different belief by referring to the black sheep! Murdering Jihadists being a case in point.

Returning to the point I was trying to make when I started, I know that very few in this country will attend religious observances, which was the specific reason for the holiday being given. I have closed my shop today, due to it being Poya, other shops in the country are open. An elderly lady who works here has always requested that she be given Poya day off to attend to her religious needs, but I know she rarely takes sill or goes to temple on Poya anymore. She goes on non-Poya days, and takes her rota to offer food to the Priest etc. This implies that most people look forward to a day of rest from work, to relax or attend to other pressing matters. Still others who work get paid time and a half or double time depending on the rules of their workplace. Poya day has just become another National Holiday in the only land where four religions get holidays for all amounting to a staggering 35 days a year. No wonder we are the land of the lotus eaters! We have time.

Conspiracy theories

For as long as I have lived in Sri Lanka conspiracy theories have flourished, as each person likes to give their own spin to a story, usually to differentiate them from the herd, not based on fact. The current events are no different.

We had the President today, accusing unnamed persons of treason, in the recent killings and firebombings of media personnel and assets. I paraphrase “They had by their heinous acts, taken away the victory of the forces in the battles against the LTTE.” So who is he pointing the finger at?

One theory making the rounds is that it is an LTTE assassination to discredit the government. Why would the government want the anti-govt. dead as they had all to lose and little to gain with his demise. Members of the ruling elite are very smart and would never have allowed something like this to happen willingly or knowingly. The firebombing of the Sirasa studio was just for Insurance and not a government initiated act of violence.

One can dream up a zillion more conspiracy theories, but lets get to the basic facts, we have not had any of the numerous acts of violence, even the killings of LTTE sympathetic MPs like Raviraj, and the UNP MP Manoharan killings solved either. In fact there has not been one political or media killing that has resulted in a conviction. A conspiracy theory will come to light if there is an apprehension. The fact that there has not been any clearly disproves the existence of one.

Lets not forget the fact that in this highly militarized society where there are security personnel every 100 meters, these incidents have occurred in broad daylight in full view of people, a more brazen attack you could not contemplate. The killers must have had state patronage, or at the very least that of the security forces. So why has there not been any enquiry? The UNP asking for international investigations in the light of the Government’s inability to bring the culprits to book is shown by the Government as an unpatriotic act, while the government has not yet been able to successfully prove any of the conspiracy theories they have come up with. If they are not serious in conducting a detailed and impartial investigation, then all the fingers point to them alone. The only conspiracy theory I can subscribe to is that they have created a Frankenstein they are now no longer able to control and the professional killers who have ties to the security forces are now working independently of the Government which created them initially.

Assassination of an Editor of a Newspaper on January 8th 2009

Kalpanakaranna, I say repeatedly about everything that is happening in this country. We have had so many killings in this country both of media personnel and other political related ones as well as other crimes such as the bombing of the TV studios, but I have yet to be aware of any culprit being apprehended for any of these crimes let alone convicted.

This in a country where the security is very tight, with road-blocks and temporary checkpoints. Just think, how can that be unless all these crimes are committed with political and security forces patronage. I have no proof, of who is directly responsible, but the odds are that it has received at best government blessing, and at worst direct orders from the highest level.

No matter what success our Armed Forces have obtained on the battlefield it has all come to naught if people are not protected especially in Colombo. The country has descended into the law of the jungle, and the general public, with a few exceptions are unable to rationalize what is happening due to the lack of being able to think through the implications of events and actions.

In this land of the lotus eaters we are continuing to eat lotuses! We just say the problem is someone else’s and we are not affected so we don’t need to do anything about it. Complacency on our part just encourages the perpetrators who are now convinced they will never be brought to book, and their level of violence and the level of brazen attacks of this nature will continue. Think a little further, the people who encouraged this will eventually meet the same fate from this Frankenstein’s monster they themselves created, but later find it impossible to control and contain once the bloodthirsty nature of the hired assassins knows no bounds. The assassin is only the person who pulls the trigger, the mastermind is ensconced in a security blanket for his or her protection, and one day meet the same fate.

There is no argument about the fact that it is the future of the patriotic honest and hardworking people of this country that is at stake, and under attack by a mob of power hungry, corrupt, incompetent people who are unable to rule with dignity and patriotism. They are of the belief that by means of a dictatorship they are doing the right thing, but are unable to see the damage they are doing to the fabric and future of society. They are surrounded by sycophants, and not reality. The truth is that all 100 ministers are the prime sycophants personally benefiting from their positions, and so imprisoned.

The attack and vandalism of the Sirasa Studio complex in Depanama

In the early hours of Tuesday the 6th of January the Sirasa studios in Pannipitiya were attacked and destroyed by a gang of thugs in two vans with the license plates removed. With the high security in the country, and the earlier notification to the Police of unidentified people loitering around, it does not take a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that the law enforcement authorities were in some ways intimidated or bought off not to protect or investigate, and that some politician in Government was behind it as a gang would not perform such a brazen act without such patronage in the current security complex.

I have noted in this blog earlier that all the good our President does comes to naught when he by inaction effectively condones this behavior due to some personal concerns he has in vociferously denouncing this and other similar acts against the independence of the media.

It is time that the law be enforced if this country does not become the joke of the world and our pride in our nation is completely destroyed by those unpatriotic leaders in power. It is important when the government media engages in disinformation of mega proportions, that some kind of balance is shown by alternative media to give the viewing and listening public, another perspective other than the government viewpoint.

Today we lack leadership of integrity and the example of people acting with impunity is bad for not just the image of the country and also to the citizens at large to know that there is no security and protection of basic human rights we have come to expect as our rights. It is of the opinion of many in rural areas that there are two laws, one for the wealthy and the other for the poor and now this adds to the perception of total lawlessness.

It is amazing that the chief of police has not immediately taken charge to assure the public that all is well and he is fully in charge of the situation to give the public a level of confidence that the full force of the law will be utilized to bring the perpetrators to book. Nothing short of this will satisfy the people of this country that they can rely on the police to uphold the law.

I don’t know how this will pan out in the future and only hope that pressure will be brought to convince the very thick-skinned legislators that they must take action to protect private and public property from acts of vandalism.

Absolute urgency for an immediate devaluation before its really too late

I was absolutely appalled to see a respected economist in the form or Dr Saman Kelegama who heads the Institute of Policy Studies, defending the Government’s stance on keeping the rupee at this unreasonably high level despite all evidence to the contrary.

I have stated time and again that the traditional reasons for not devaluing, namely of the inflationary impact does not apply now as we are in a situation of a substantial (50%) drop in commodity prices and so will be able to prevent any net inflationary impact. Furthermore, as the Indian rupee has depreciated against the US$, we can suffer an equivalent depreciation without affecting our food imports and for that matter other imports from India. The oil import bill which should (but for the disastrous hedging contracts) fall by over US$2B if the price of US$50 a barrel stays throughout 2009 will effectively leave the country in a Balance of Payments surplus situation on the current account even taking into account the reduction in value of Tea and Garment exports.

One possible area where he did make some sense was in the issue of repayment of international debt and credibility with international investors. I don’t believe there will be any grain left in that truth now the world is in recession and they have lost more money on their other investments than in their investment in SL treasuries which as we speak still yield in excess of 20% on a stable exchange rate. The other fallacies of not being able to carry out the government’s infrastructural development plans is totally predicated on inflation, which I have proved is not an issue.

A famed economist should realize if he has ever been in business, which sadly many of our intellectuals have not, that it is the businessmen who are importing who are amassing fortunes both in foreign bank accounts and on local profits, by not passing the substantial price reductions from commodity prices to their consumers. The fortunes amassed overseas from over invoicing exceed the total foreign reserves of the country.

So please I beg of you the reader to alert the state to the reliance on outdated economic theory that does not hold water at present in Sri Lanka, and the hardworking population overseas have kept the economy functioning through their remittances. They who have saved this country deserve more from the extra money pumped in from devaluation too. Just do it!

The leaders are engaged in an orgy, while the rest of us are struggling

Sri Lanka is in a pathetic situation. Nero is enjoying in Rome, oblivious to the cries at home. The finance minister who happens to be President does not understand Finance, the Governor who is the policy maker does not understand Banking and the Global Calamity. The country is being held to ransom, with no coherent stand by the opposition to address the issues and notify the people of the crisis at hand. This all because the country is being held to ransom on the pretext of being on hold to win the war at all costs.

This is the background today, and the purpose of my essay is to alert the reader to take a stand in some way to notify people in power and try to take action to minimize the effects of what is in store.

The captains of industry are busy shoring up their diminishing portfolios by taking full advantage of the substantial drop in commodity prices to maintain and enhance their profit margins, without upsetting the apple cart. No wonder the importers are not agitating for devaluation, as they are taking full advantage of the price falls to make large profits, despite a fall in demand for their products. There is therefore no agitation from them who are also helping the politicians to keep the status quo while the rest of the country which really does not have a say is suffering under this heavy burden.

This conspiracy of silence is being carried out because there is little competition in Sri Lanka, and the large businesses that are oligopolists are able to act in concert for their mutual benefit. In other words, the industrialists in Sri Lanka collectively seeing the demand for their products falling, due to lack of money with the consumer, is not passing the cost reductions arising from halving of commodity prices. Instead they are increasing their profit margins to maintain the cumulative profit. This process is being carried out both by the multinationals such as Unilever, the milk powder and flour producers as well as paint manufacturers and even the animal feed importers, just to quote a few industries. I have not noticed Arpico reduce the price of any rubber product, despite the drop in rubber sheet prices from Rs325 two months ago to Rs70 today.

The government is complicit in this scam, and instead of defending the rights of the people who have elected them are either in cahoots or ignorant of what is happening around them. Not even the Newspapers have competent staff to be even aware of this state of betrayal.

Economic consequences of the halt to most apartment construction

One just has to look at the halted construction projects on the Colombo skyline to wonder if a major crisis in the housing and hence in the banking sector is about to erupt. The Dawson Grand has ceased any further building work, and it looks like the Emperor has done the same. Ceylinco Celestial seems to be going that way, and Premier Pacific has declared insolvency. Just as there was a meteoric rise in the value of apartments, there is now a meteoric fall in the same.

In the past the builders took stage payments from the apartment buyers in order to finance the construction. That helped them construct with little bank borrowing by preselling the whole project. Premier being unable to sell all its apartments found itself unable to continue as they were unable to obtain bank borrowings at an acceptable rate of interest to make the project viable. So those who put in stage payments are faced with a dilemma and a part completed building. Of course an investor who can see a good profit may wish to buy the shell and promise existing purchases completion if they are willing to pay more than originally committed but that is another story.

What all this means is that the apartment and condo building boom in Colombo is over for the foreseeable future. Those buildings that have been completed all have issues that have dissatisfied the buyers. Therefore this is not a harbinger for the health of apartment living in Sri Lanka. Banks are either unwilling to lend or extend already stretched credit lines as this does not seem to be a good investment after all.

Many of those who bought apartments for speculative purposes have lost their money and are trying to cash in their investment at any cost as some have borrowed heavily to purchase them. The world economic crisis has resulted in rich Sri Lankan expats overseas not wanting to invest in an apartment in Colombo and some who have want to cash out as they need the funds. Many high net worth individuals who purchased apartments as part of their diversified portfolio have seen their wealth drop in many of their investment vehicles, that include stocks here and overseas, property and businesses, Only those who hold cash have weathered the storm but are unwilling to buy property now as it no longer seems a good investment as rental returns do not seem a possibility either with no demand. Banks who have lent on the valuation of property have seen their security drop in value by 50% but worse have realized that they are all illiquid at this time.